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By Walter L. Perry, John Gordon

Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have proven that U.S. forces desire more-effective thoughts and strategies to behavior counterinsurgency. they'll probably face related, abnormal conflict strategies from destiny enemies. This monograph examines the character of the modern rebel risk and offers insights on utilizing operational research innovations to help intelligence operations in counterinsurgencies.

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In other words, analysis must be temporally local assuming we concede that a model for adaptation is elusive. 2 Stewart Magnuson, “Adaptive Foe Thwarts Counter-IED Efforts,” National Defense, January 2006. CHAPTER FIVE Intelligence Analysis The analytic tools needed to answer the research questions posed earlier are a mix of existing methods of analysis, some new approaches, and perhaps different ways to apply existing methods. What follows is a discussion of several techniques that might be used, based on our experience in supporting coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Using the Internet and friendly or unwitting global media as their communications means, the jihadis can spread their message and recruit. Indeed, today insurgents and terrorists can essentially create their own “media network” by exploiting the Internet, using it to propagandize and spread their message. It is no longer possible for authorities to clamp down on the news coming from a region threatened by an insurgency. 1 At the same time, much about insurgencies and counterinsurgency responses remains the same.

The insurgents will now often be out in the open. They will have probably established physical control over various parts of the country and will likely be in a position to contest government control in other areas. If their objective is to establish an autonomous region broken away from control of the existing government, they will probably be The Nature of Modern Insurgency 11 well along that path. 3 From the point of view of the government’s intelligence and security forces, the roles of the military and police have almost certainly been reversed in this stage.

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